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U.S.: Doom from Outsourcing Jobs?

December 29, 2007

exercisesynapse.jpgI’ve been doing some thinking…exercising a few synapses, which is nothing new for me. In fact, I may have seen some new light, at least until I start thinking again. The proverbial experts say that the U.S. is going to lose 40 million jobs in the near future. In this case, they say 30 years, but probably faster than that. 40 million of 140 million jobs are out the door. Good enough. The people in power don’t seem to be so concerned overall. Nobody seems to care and that bothers some of us. They must be mad or the beneficiaries of some grand payoff scheme! Our nation is going down the toilet! What are we afraid of? Change for one. But it hasn’t happened just yet. Still, change is rarely easy, especially the kind of uncertainty that puts a knot in your throat that won’t go away. Certainly, nobody really wants to be displaced. That is uncomfortable. Naturally, you want to protect what you have. You are used to living life the safe way. You have insurance. That’s natural.

But is it safe to assume that this country is going to really miss those 40 million jobs in the longer term? For example, baby boomers, those born between 1946 and 1964 are going to be retiring at record rates. Baby boomers are comprised of approximately 82 million people according to statistics that will begin to retire in 2011. So we have a kind of economic pinch for the next few years until we get a few years of retirees on their way. Of course, I’m ignoring those “pesky illegal aliens” taking up all those unwanted jobs, but never mind that. In theory, we don’t even need those 40 million jobs if we just count jobs as jobs. Then again, if nothing changed after today, the U.S. would have a surplus of 42 million jobs based on those numbers I just stated.

Then, we haven’t considered some grand new technology that can turn the world on its ear. It hasn’t happened yet, so we just don’t know. All we need is someone like a modern-day Thomas Edison and we’ve got this licked. …Perhaps some new energy technology…Perhaps a new way of getting around the planet…Even better, a new way to think…Perhaps a world without politicians. Sweet! So we do have some problems to work out like responsible government spending, but losing jobs overseas probably has the people of the U.S. only in a temporary pinch.

Now let’s assume the worst for just a minute: that there is no hope. Let’s say that the United States loses the expected 40 million jobs, maybe even more. It’s bad and chaotic. Millions suffer and thousands starve. Mortgages don’t get paid. Retired baby boomers languish and social security vanishes. Banks close. Millions more lose everything. Some will prosper, but not all. The spoiled children of the U.S. learn a valuable economic lesson as the prices and values fall through the floor to match the third world. We had it coming and now the country is better for it. This country learns an expensive economic lesson and people actually learn what is important in life other than simply buying stuff and we learn what character is about once more. Then, we build a renewed nation built on that newfound character. Does any of this sound plausible? It could happen! Really! Anything could happen. You just never know. ~ E. Manning

check out this TNTalk article on “Outsourcing” from December 27th

“According to a new study, bad economic times can actually be good for you because people tend to exercise more and eat better.” ~ Jay Leno

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3 Comments leave one →
  1. March 23, 2008 5:36 pm

    Who are the “experts”? How do they know how many jobs will be lost?

    Just curious.

    Try these references. Alan Blinder is the “culprit”.

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/05/04/AR2007050402555_pf.html

    http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2007_05/011255.php

  2. December 29, 2007 10:05 am

    Just to help you sleep at night. This comes from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Of the 140 million jobs today, 90% are location fixed. That means they must be done where they are. When you start looking at the list of jobs, it’s amazing how many really can’t be moved. I’ll give you some. Dental Hygienist..unless you have false teeth you’re not sending them to China to be cleaned. Truck Driver, Bus Driver Farmer, Retail Clerk, Home Health Nurse, Carpenteur, Electrician, Plumber, Kindergarten Teacher, etc.

    When you look at something like manufacturing most of the jobs are sent anywhere, they’re replaced by automation. If you’ve been in any factory lately, what’s surprising is how few people actually work on the shop floor. 90% of workers in manufacturing aren’t making the product. They’re in sales, design, logistics, etc.

    Also, if you look at your 30 year time period, you’re assuming no new job growth for 30 years. That’s never happened in the history of the US. Take a look at job growth starting in 1929 to 1959. That’s through the great depression. There is explosive job growth in that time period.

    Finally, the point on baby boomers. I go to a look of Human Resources meetings and convention. The number 1 issue is “where are we going to find employees with all the baby boomers retiring.” No one really has an answer. You’re replacing a 77 million generation with a 50 million generation. The math doesn’t work. Here’s just one example. In the next 5 years, the railroads will lose 50% of their management due to retirement. Railroads are are rapidly expanding industry an all the jobs are location fixed. You can’t ship frieght from LA to Chicago on a train in Beijing.

  3. December 29, 2007 9:47 am

    Well said. In fact, China has the US by the balls. If we lose any relationship with China, the entire US economy is completely doomed and an economic depression will erupt overnight. The US needs to become more self-sustaining in oil and bring jobs back into the US. Otherwise, my children will have no future in this country.

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